| Author |
 Topic  |
|
|
bama21
278 Posts |
 Posted - 11/13/2017 : 11:42:03
|
I like PG, but I feel their rankings leave a lot to be desired. In looking at the 2018 and 2019 updated rankings that just came out, some of the rankings are certainly questionable. Probably the top 50, with a few exceptions, are no brainers, but after that it is a crap shoot.
I understand it is not an exact science and projection and evaluators opinions play significant roles. With that said, if you are going to write something about a player, then you should have the data to back it up, for example:
1) Player has tremendous bat speed and then there are no numbers to back it up.
2) Player hit well all summer and the players batting average is below .250 for the year.
3) Player showed big time power and he hit no home runs for the year.
These are just a few examples, there are many more if you take the time to look. |
|
|
Renegade44
211 Posts |
Posted - 11/13/2017 : 13:48:02
|
| Follow the $ |
 |
|
|
CaCO3Girl
1989 Posts |
Posted - 11/14/2017 : 07:23:37
|
They can only post based on what they have seen.
If you have been watching teens play baseball for 10+ years you can see when the player has tremendous bat speed, and big time power, and if you see him do it 3 times over the summer you can say it wasn't a one time fluke.
As to the 50+ rankings, again, it's who they have seen. If there is a hot shot kid in CA he may not be ranked as high as he should because they don't play much PG there. If there is a local hot shot whose team has only played in one PG tourney they have only seen him once and aren't going to rank him as high as they would have had they seen him more. Even Jerry Ford admits they are estimates, and that many very talented kids go the JUCO route because they just weren't seen as having D1 wow potential at the time, or perhaps their grades weren't good enough. Whatever the reason is yes, PG sometimes makes mistakes, but it's not often. And the different in the 51st kid and the 100th kid isn't much and are easily interchangeable. |
|
|
|
bama21
278 Posts |
Posted - 11/14/2017 : 10:38:48
|
Numbers don't lie. While mistakes are certainly made, if you look at some of the data being used, it looks to be at least a year old. These kids are changing too fast at this age to use outdated data. So, my point is, if you are going to state a so called fact, then have the numbers to back it up. Again, saying a kid hit well all summer and then you look up the stats that PG has listed on him and the batting average is below .250, something is not right with that.
And it's not all about the money. Some of the higher ranked players have never been to a showcase, which is their most expensive individual event.
Like I said, I like PG and what they do, but if you are going to tout yourself as being the largest scouting service, then more effort needs to be put into getting this right. Personally, I believe the scouts are putting too much emphasis on projection and their personal opinions, rather than what the numbers are showing.
|
|
|
|
CaCO3Girl
1989 Posts |
Posted - 11/14/2017 : 15:17:52
|
quote:
Originally posted by bama21
Numbers don't lie. While mistakes are certainly made, if you look at some of the data being used, it looks to be at least a year old. These kids are changing too fast at this age to use outdated data. So, my point is, if you are going to state a so called fact, then have the numbers to back it up. Again, saying a kid hit well all summer and then you look up the stats that PG has listed on him and the batting average is below .250, something is not right with that.
And it's not all about the money. Some of the higher ranked players have never been to a showcase, which is their most expensive individual event.
Like I said, I like PG and what they do, but if you are going to tout yourself as being the largest scouting service, then more effort needs to be put into getting this right. Personally, I believe the scouts are putting too much emphasis on projection and their personal opinions, rather than what the numbers are showing.
Projection is the name of the game. These kids bodies ARE changing nearly daily. Projection is about all you can do because by the time you record a stat it's changed again, lol!
I don't think the power 5 schools are scouting these 9th and 10th graders based on what they are doing right now...they are PROJECTING! |
|
|
|
bama21
278 Posts |
Posted - 11/14/2017 : 18:10:26
|
| Exactly, they’re changing every day, so use up to date information. As far as projection, it’s always a part of the game at any age, but nowadays everything is recorded and ultimately it’s about results. |
|
|
|
bama21
278 Posts |
Posted - 11/14/2017 : 18:42:06
|
| Also, I was referring to the 2018 and 2019 rankings, not 9th or 10th graders. |
|
|
|
CaCO3Girl
1989 Posts |
Posted - 11/15/2017 : 07:55:57
|
While numbers don't lie the scouts also don't have numbers at their disposal. We often think of PG as this all knowing thing and they aren't. They don't have trackman on at every field for every game, not even 10% of the time actually. The scouts eye ball this, and if they have seen it more than once they view it as repeatable.
If you don't like the ranking your kid got, or someone's kid that you know, then that sucks. The way the kid can improve his standing is being seen more. I've also heard from more than one college coach that they could care less if a kid is ranked 3rd or 3003rd, they want to see the kid play. Having nice measurables or a sweet rank on the PG site is good but it doesn't seal the deal. Attend that colleges camp, or go JUCO until the kid is noticed by the right people is usually the advice I hear in those situations. |
|
|
|
bama21
278 Posts |
Posted - 11/15/2017 : 09:46:16
|
As usual, the point is getting missed here. IF YOU SAY SOMETHING ABOUT A PLAYER, THEN THE NUMBERS SHOULD SUPPORT WHAT YOU ARE SAYING.
And as you have probably noticed from my other posts, I like numbers and like it or not the numbers are the only true indicator of talent. Are there intangibles, absolutely, but those also lead to creating numbers.
We live in a result driven world and if you have updated numbers on a player, then those should be used. Especially, if it is over the course of a WHOLE season. There is a very thin line between the top 10%, lets say that represents 1-499 rankings, that's why it's even more important to use updated info.
As far as the rankings to me, they don't mean a whole lot. As I've also said in the past, judging talent is not easy and it is in the eye of the beholder and opinions will vary greatly. |
|
|
|
bama21
278 Posts |
Posted - 11/15/2017 : 10:08:32
|
Player evaluations are the hardest thing to do in sports, I am not saying it is easy. I challenge anyone to look at 10 players randomly, look at where they are ranked and the numbers they had for that year, I guarantee at least one will make you scratch your head.
I will give an example of why the rankings shouldn't mean a whole lot to anyone: S. Beer, Ga. native, committed to Clemson, PG grade of 10, ranking by PG was FOLLOW. Need I say more? |
|
|
|
wareagle
324 Posts |
Posted - 11/15/2017 : 14:52:31
|
I have a hard time agreeing with anything a "bama" guy says(lol), but i have to agree here!
If you are going to put rankings out there, then I believe they have the info available to do a better job. If you look at the stats for some of these players, it is pretty obvious that stats dont matter to PG. Does it matter how much power potential a kid has if he strikes out 7 out of 10 at bats or has a batting avg of 200 with few extra bases? Does it matter if a kid breaks 90 one time on the mound but has very little control and walks or hits more batters than he get out? These are things that are readily available to PG for them to use, but they obviously dont. I have come to the conclusion that is more about which team you are on, and info received from travel coaches (who are being paid by mom and dad). I see lots of these rankings that completely baffle me, and I am not sure where they get the info.
Bottom line if you only have the time and/or staffing to evaluate 50 or 100 players, then don't try to rank 1000 of them. |
Edited by - wareagle on 11/15/2017 16:55:41 |
|
|
|
CaCO3Girl
1989 Posts |
Posted - 11/16/2017 : 09:51:59
|
quote:
Originally posted by bama21
Player evaluations are the hardest thing to do in sports, I am not saying it is easy. I challenge anyone to look at 10 players randomly, look at where they are ranked and the numbers they had for that year, I guarantee at least one will make you scratch your head.
I will give an example of why the rankings shouldn't mean a whole lot to anyone: S. Beer, Ga. native, committed to Clemson, PG grade of 10, ranking by PG was FOLLOW. Need I say more?
I'm interested and I want to understand. When I looked up S. Beer I saw that his Clemson bio said "he graduated high school a semester early to enroll at Clemson in January 2016....that means that he re-classed or something because Clemson had him down as a 2016 but PG had him as a 2015, but ALL his write ups have him listed as a 2016....several of the showcase write ups pointed out that he has a 2015 grad birthday but is the class of 2016 If all the data went into 2016 no wonder he was only a follow.
Have any other examples? |
|
|
|
bama21
278 Posts |
Posted - 11/16/2017 : 11:57:01
|
Well he went to 4 showcases, starting in 2013, they gave him a PG grade of 10 in the very first one. And 2 to 3 years is plenty of time to be seen.
Players reclassify every year, usually dropping a grade, although I have seen one move up. These reclassifications didn't seem to effect the other players who were ranked, maybe Mr. Beer was an exception.
Sports in general are full of examples, especially baseball. How about this one: Florida Gators/2017 National Champions- their leading hitter for the 2017 season was ranked in the 500 group. That group is a catch all till you get to the 1000 group. |
|
|
|
CaCO3Girl
1989 Posts |
Posted - 11/16/2017 : 13:36:51
|
It's not a perfect system. But I also don't think it's the be all end all of the recruiting world. Players that are interested in playing in college need to get themselves out there and let the colleges see them. I don't think Clemson cared if S. Beer was a follow, they considered him a top prospect.
The college coaches I have talked to treat PG like a google search. They put in criteria like within 150 miles of their college zip code, certain pitch speed, certain pop time, made all tourney team 3+ times...etc. and see what names pop out. Do they ever search for PG grade of 9+, probably, but that's not the only thing they are looking at. Do they read the scouting reports? Maybe, but most coaches want to see before they believe, and see often.
I was at a GHSA 7A semi final game last year and the Georgia Tech coach was there watching one of his commitments pitch...the kid was already a senior, already committed and the coach STILL wanted to see some more. |
|
|
|
Renegade44
211 Posts |
Posted - 11/16/2017 : 14:32:48
|
Rank this rank that.
Five things matter. In no particular order
1.) The radar gun
2.) How much can you pay (to be seen)
3.) How many times can you pay (to be seen)
4.) Does your favorite middleman circle with the right scammers
5.) Does the big $ check clear the bank
In essence its all a clown show with no regard to actual winners doing what is necessary to winning.
I got skills, a big checkbook, but can't function in a game.......where do I sign to commit. |
|
|
|
wareagle
324 Posts |
Posted - 11/16/2017 : 17:19:43
|
The job title of the 20 year old kid that keeps the gamechanger for games? Scout/field manager. He keeps the gamechanger, makes sure the fields are ready, makes sure the umps are there and ready and writes scouting notes for the game. Most of these kids can't even correctly score an error or keep the roster substitutions correct. Maybe this is the notes they are using to rank players as well!!!
I really do like slot of things about PG. Rankings just aren't one of them. |
|
|
|
brball
615 Posts |
Posted - 11/16/2017 : 23:04:18
|
| Real simple, don’t pay much attention to the PG stuff... Let your kids performance do the talking! As someone said, the cream will rise to the top! |
|
|
|
bama21
278 Posts |
Posted - 11/17/2017 : 07:27:20
|
Yeah, a lot of the college coaches watching games are not looking necessarily for uncommitted talent, they are watching the player/players they already have committed.
The scorekeeping is atrocious. I saw a centerfielder lay flat out for a ball in the gap, it went off his glove. He got an error, the hitter did not get a double, nor did he get the 3 rbi's.
Back to the subject. The PG rankings are not the end all/be all, but people do use them and look at them. So, my point is, if a player is ranked, there has to be UPDATED/NEW/RECENT numbers to justify, it should not be just someone's opinion or data from a year ago. |
Edited by - bama21 on 11/17/2017 09:12:59 |
|
|
|
CaCO3Girl
1989 Posts |
Posted - 11/17/2017 : 09:30:39
|
quote:
Originally posted by Renegade44
Rank this rank that.
Five things matter. In no particular order
1.) The radar gun
2.) How much can you pay (to be seen)
3.) How many times can you pay (to be seen)
4.) Does your favorite middleman circle with the right scammers
5.) Does the big $ check clear the bank
In essence its all a clown show with no regard to actual winners doing what is necessary to winning.
I got skills, a big checkbook, but can't function in a game.......where do I sign to commit.
Not sure how a college coach keeps his job by awarding scholarships to players that can't play.
Yes, recruitment is a business much like Travel Ball. But I think the parents make it FAAAAR more complicated than it needs to be, kind of like Travel Ball. |
|
|
|
wareagle
324 Posts |
Posted - 11/17/2017 : 10:07:27
|
| Even with the college coaches it is a lucky educated guess a lot of the time. If you research a college teams roster to see how many freshman players are still on the roster as juniors, it is typically half or less. especially at the big schools. I know that there are lots of reasons for this, but I would recommend putting this on your list of things to look at when considering schools. |
|
|
|
Critical Mass
277 Posts |
Posted - 11/17/2017 : 10:09:17
|
Seth Beer was on the radar well before 2013. For God's sake, he played travel ball for Paul Byrd. Byrd is who actually got him into baseball (meaning he told him how good he was and could be with focus on the sport) and why he left pursuing Michael Phelps youth records in swimming. He was on a path to the Olympics.
PG is not perfect....odd huh? People are inputting data and mistakes can be made. Go to PG events and work with them to correct obvious mistakes...meaning email them and ask for clarification or help to change. Or, quit playing PG and roll the dice.
Before i get any blow back about leaving PG or it being a necessity (showcases or grade), i will admit the exposure at large events is awesome if you are where the recruiters are, like Lakepoint or playing a team full of studs or a stud so you can be seen however if your son is good enough you dont have to showcase.
Squawking on a baseball board about PG without asking them directly isn't constructive. Next up....daddy ball comments.
|
|
|
|
743
215 Posts |
Posted - 11/17/2017 : 11:37:06
|
| CaCo3, I think you are going to be surprised by the recruiting process. Faaaar more complicated than it needs to be. You can read everything you want about it, even pay for a seminar, talk to everyone who has been through it and I promise you it is nothing like you think its going to be. Do keep us updated on your experience. If you wade through it with few complications you should start a business helping others, heck I will even work for you. |
|
|
|
CaCO3Girl
1989 Posts |
Posted - 11/17/2017 : 14:25:27
|
quote:
Originally posted by 743
CaCo3, I think you are going to be surprised by the recruiting process. Faaaar more complicated than it needs to be. You can read everything you want about it, even pay for a seminar, talk to everyone who has been through it and I promise you it is nothing like you think its going to be. Do keep us updated on your experience. If you wade through it with few complications you should start a business helping others, heck I will even work for you.
Junior year is around the corner, where open contact is allowed, but so far it's gone WAY better than I could have hoped for.
Haven't paid for a seminar, have talked to a few people going through it, and I do enjoy reading.
Then again my son isn't hung up on a power 5 conference position, THAT helps greatly. There are 299 D1, 312 D2, and many NAIA baseball programs that have scholarships and 90% of the players are focused on about 30 of those schools. THAT is the biggest problem in recruiting in my opinion, and it's usually driven by the parents that want to say my kid got a full ride to XYZ school. Full rides are almost as rare as Bigfoot sightings. |
|
|
| |
Topic |
|
|
|
PG Rankings
