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 Scouting Hitters
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bama21

278 Posts

Posted - 10/01/2018 :  12:22:06  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
I always like looking at how well hitters handle velocity. Looking at this past weekends tournament, I looked at the 1st day of pitchers that hit 90mph and above. The pitchers that hit 90mph or above (not their average for the outing), they pitched 18.1 innings and allowed just 2 hits.

Now, if you are a scout, you may see multiple players batting 1.000 for the day, but what speed were they hitting against and does it matter? If you go 3 for 3 against a 75mph to 82mph pitcher, is that equivalent to going 1 for 3 against a 90+ mph pitcher?

Braedenclane

1 Posts

Posted - 10/01/2018 :  15:13:32  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
I think it definitely matters. At younger ages, there are certain swing faults that would cause hitters to be very inconsistent—especially against faster pitching. Obviously, you have less time to decide if/when/where you are going to swing against faster pitching, and even with some faults, hitters can get lucky.

Also, a hit does not necessarily mean a hitter performed well against a certain pitcher. It doesn’t tell the whole story. A 1-3 day against a pitcher throwing 90+ could simply mean a “swinging bunt” that the hitter just ran out for a single. But it could also mean a line drive gapper that was an easy double. It isn’t enough information—especially for one day. A larger sample size really is necessary for this kind of analysis.

I’m not a scout, but I would be about equally inclined to investigate both hitters in your scenario. A 3-3 day against a mediocre pitcher may mean that the hitter actually has a more consistent swing. This wouldn’t always be the case because in baseball, he might have just gotten lucky three times. Again, it just isn’t a large enough sample size.
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bama21

278 Posts

Posted - 10/01/2018 :  18:01:32  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
My real point was to say that scouting hitters has got to be really hard; especially, when they are not facing the same quality of pitching on a consistent basis. Obviously, you can learn a lot from watching the kid swing and I personally like to watch BP, if you can’t hit a perfect pitch, then you have no chance against quality pitchers. However, as we know, crushing it in BP means very little in games.
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743

215 Posts

Posted - 10/04/2018 :  12:03:31  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
its funny you watch a guy that was being scouted by MLB teams and you find a video on youtube... most of the time you see them miss, strikeout and even ground out foul off a few, every now and then do you see them square one up so has to be hard to scout.
Good Example here Acuna
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YgmOtJZQnaw


Edited by - 743 on 10/04/2018 14:44:29
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bama21

278 Posts

Posted - 10/05/2018 :  07:55:04  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Yeah, he has made a swing change since that video. Seems to have worked out for now. Great hitters make adjustments and are always tinkering with their swing.
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hshuler

1074 Posts

Posted - 10/05/2018 :  09:00:37  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
I think the key is to develop a swing that plays at every level.

In the video, Acuna’s swing is long and you can get away with that at certain level but not at the highest.
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743

215 Posts

Posted - 10/05/2018 :  12:19:54  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Just my opinion though but I have to disagree his swing then is "not" much different than it is now, Very long hands go back and disconnect from his body but he can get away with it because he has done it for so long or just has amazingly quick hands. What I have seen is despite what people say about different swings, it is very very hard to change your swing, you might start differently hand position or stance or put in or take away a leg kick or stride but a person's swing is what your body dictates and to change that is very very hard and would take years and years. Because he is successful people say oh he changed his swing. If anything swings don't change much but approaches do.
What swing changes do you see specifically That he made?

Edited by - 743 on 10/05/2018 13:01:24
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bama21

278 Posts

Posted - 10/05/2018 :  13:47:22  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
He doesn't really load anymore, he sets his hands and that is where he goes from. Also, his bat is way more upright now than previously. These are subtle changes, but changes you can see.

Over the years, you've seen some crazy swings in the majors, Kevin Youkilis being one of the craziest. That swing took many, many years of tinkering to come up with, but it worked for him.
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hshuler

1074 Posts

Posted - 10/05/2018 :  14:45:14  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
I’m not sure if your question is for Bama, me or both?

I agree that it’s hard to change a swing but a player can refine and develop his swing and probably most importantly, his approach.

For example: I think the desired outcome of every swing is to be short and direct. I think that he’s improved in both areas because, IMO, his swing is shorter now and more direct.

To your point, I think that is a result of him lowering his hands (he gets to launch point sooner) and also pushing them out front a bit. If you have time to watch the entire video, he starts the year with the bat higher and flatter but his hands progressively get lower (really low now) and his bat gets more upright as the season goes on.

https://youtu.be/jBqmOObCICk


Edited by - hshuler on 10/05/2018 14:58:29
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743

215 Posts

Posted - 10/12/2018 :  14:34:11  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
I just watched the video biggest difference I see is early on he had an open stance and then moves to a more even stance with his front and back foot as well as the hands starting lower like you mentioned. Do we have any numbers comparison as far as strikeouts and HR's, Walks and BA hands low vs hands high? That might tell us something. Did Albies make any changes you think?
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hshuler

1074 Posts

Posted - 10/12/2018 :  15:41:07  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by 743

I just watched the video biggest difference I see is early on he had an open stance and then moves to a more even stance with his front and back foot as well as the hands starting lower like you mentioned. Do we have any numbers comparison as far as strikeouts and HR's, Walks and BA hands low vs hands high? That might tell us something. Did Albies make any changes you think?



Haven’t looked at Albies yet but will have to check out when I have some time.

I don’t know when Acuna lowered his hands but his second half numbers (.322 ba) were significantly better, across the board, than the first (.249 ba).

Now, that only tells a part of the story but the kid made some adjustments that allowed him to have sustained success.

You can check out his first second half splits via the below.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=acunaro01&t=b&year=2018

Edited by - hshuler on 10/12/2018 16:23:16
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743

215 Posts

Posted - 10/15/2018 :  15:41:43  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by hshuler

quote:
Originally posted by 743

I just watched the video biggest difference I see is early on he had an open stance and then moves to a more even stance with his front and back foot as well as the hands starting lower like you mentioned. Do we have any numbers comparison as far as strikeouts and HR's, Walks and BA hands low vs hands high? That might tell us something. Did Albies make any changes you think?



Haven’t looked at Albies yet but will have to check out when I have some time.

I don’t know when Acuna lowered his hands but his second half numbers (.322 ba) were significantly better, across the board, than the first (.249 ba).

Now, that only tells a part of the story but the kid made some adjustments that allowed him to have sustained success.

You can check out his first second half splits via the below.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=acunaro01&t=b&year=2018

Thanks!
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NorcrossBBall

55 Posts

Posted - 12/02/2018 :  11:03:09  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
I commented on other thread about "PO Only".....when to move your kid. Not sure if this one is about evaling your son or others as hitter but same logic applies and to comments above. The swing needs to scale from 65 to 95. I've seen zillions of kids that are killers at 65 even 75 and can't touch 80+. Swing flaws kill them as they scale....or fail to. The key is to get right mechanics early enough and as speeds go up try to simplify as much as possible. Kids watch MLB and all the crazy movements they have and try to replicate.....BIG mistake. Keep it simple so repeatable. MLB guys are there because they are gifted and also at some point in swing all fall into same fundamentals....even though they get there in many ways. To me 12U and below is all about 80% tee work and 20% live toss.....as get older this moves to full speed machine pitch (12U below is building fundamentals, 13U+ is about scaling)....which for my son I've always forced him to swing in cage at one speed level above his ability/U-grade. Why ?.......mostly for confidence about going to plate and being able to deal with mentally any speed he will see. Batting "at plate game time" is about confidence to execute the muscle memory trained......at least at these ages a HUGE part of it.

Edited by - NorcrossBBall on 12/02/2018 13:23:13
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Vandy

36 Posts

Posted - 12/02/2018 :  14:00:56  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
I'd comment that up til 15 it will rarely matter. True difference in 2018 and later is the information that is either already available to a pro / college scout or can be ordered just like a test from a specialist from the family MD. There is so much data reaped from the technology like Rapsodo that the scout can literally see what that player will do in certain situations and variables such as speed and pitch type. I wouldn't be surprised to see a decline in showcase activity and a trending toward more irrefutable data collection. I'd take a kid that has excellent tendencies as it relates to swing mechanics, bat speed, launch angle, and exit velo over a kid that had one great showcase. At least preliminarily. Showcases are in most cases a revenue source. If a scout can look at 20 players via this sort of data, he can then weed pretty quickly through the group and concentrate more individually on his desired prospects. All while sitting in his office.
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