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oldschool22
50 Posts |
 Posted - 05/17/2020 : 10:21:25
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“The website explains that cases over the past 14 days may be under-reported because of a lag between testing and reporting, but you have to dig a little to find out that their new method of dating new cases will cause perpetual under-reporting for recent days or even weeks.”
Yes, that disclaimer is available for all that view their charts and those who track the data on a daily basis understand there is a lag in reporting from hospitals. Even with this lag it is abundantly clear that new cases and fatalities are indeed on a very sharp decline as the virus runs its course here in Georgia. |
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oldschool22
50 Posts |
Posted - 05/17/2020 : 10:30:24
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“And how can you “social distance” in those dugouts and the stands?”
Spent the day at East Cobb as the older teams were scrimmaging. Families were awesome about social distancing in the stands and coaches were on that constantly. You could see some fans kept themselves further away and others were evenly spaced around the fields. At no time were there any clusters of people. The players were also separated with some using the stands instead of the dugouts to increase distancing. These measures may be a small hassle, but if that’s what it took to enjoy a day of some real baseball, I think everyone there was happy to comply. I really am appreciative of the coaches for making this happen and to do so in a manner that complies with all the guidelines. |
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Crazyforbball
391 Posts |
Posted - 05/17/2020 : 11:57:28
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| Good to hear oldschool. No reaason to keep healthy young men inactive and boxed up inside when a few slight inconveniences allow them to get back out there playing the game they love. |
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oneZone
117 Posts |
Posted - 05/17/2020 : 13:15:28
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quote:
Originally posted by oldschool22
“The website explains that cases over the past 14 days may be under-reported because of a lag between testing and reporting, but you have to dig a little to find out that their new method of dating new cases will cause perpetual under-reporting for recent days or even weeks.”
Yes, that disclaimer is available for all that view their charts and those who track the data on a daily basis understand there is a lag in reporting from hospitals. Even with this lag it is abundantly clear that new cases and fatalities are indeed on a very sharp decline as the virus runs its course here in Georgia.
It is not abundantly clear that new cases and fatalities are on a very sharp decline.
The 7-day moving average of daily new cases peaked April 22 at 770. The most current reading that's prior to the 14-day lag period, from May 3, is 653 new cases per day.
That's about a 15% decline, which is not sharp by most people's definition.
I have not and am still not stating my opinion about whether or not people should be back out at the ballparks, by the way. I just think it's important for people to understand the numbers. And I think it's hard to make a very compelling case based on those numbers that all is well and the risk is mostly behind us.
Also, my point was not just that the 14-day lag period causes the more recent trend to look better, but that the new way they record (back-date) the date of each new case will cause the recent trend to perpetually appear to be declining.
Look at the chart of cumulative cases - even all the way through the 14-day lag period - and try to spot where this so-called sharp decline occurred.
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gabbdad24
28 Posts |
Posted - 05/17/2020 : 15:27:15
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| OneZone, you make some good points, we don’t really know how much cases are declining yet — but we do know that the people screaming that opening up anything was going to cause an immediate (within 14 days) massive spike in hospitalizations and deaths were wrong. On a cumulative cases chart you won’t really see the inflection to a slowdown unless you look at it on a log scale because the slope is so steep. It did clearly change from positive to negative acceleration (upward curve to downward curve) in late April. But anyways, we are testing a lot more so I wouldn’t expect a huge plummet in new cases because old cases were probably way underreported. Hospitalizations and deaths are more important to look at. The quarantine was to turn the upward trajectory down and make sure hospitals didn’t get overwhelmed. At this point it looks like we have been there in GA since late April. Could that change in the future - sure. But we can’t continue to take away people’s liberties and livelihood until everyone agrees it’s “safe” - especially in an election year when, unfortunately, the calls to open or stay closed fall completely along political lines and both sides have incentive to keep those positions. |
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Crazyforbball
391 Posts |
Posted - 05/17/2020 : 19:17:45
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| I agree it seems to be going down political lines. Its really unfortunate that as a result of us adults and our fears or lack of, or our politicians' agendas, or the money to be made by big pharma, or whatever, that the future of our children is at stake..that each of these decisions grossly affects their socialization,their education, their physical and mental health are being possibly permanently altered and no one seems to care they are all so busy pushing their personal agendas on everyone else. |
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Chet
28 Posts |
Posted - 05/17/2020 : 21:53:39
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Nobody here is being ridiculous about their opinion on the numbers, so I’ll share mine. I do data analysis for a living and have spent a lot of time helping public health officials in the region with their statistical analysis.
Georgia is in sharp decline. It has nothing to do with the 7 days of the “curve”, but the fact that the moving average has basically stayed statistically flat in the face of a significant rise in new tests. That’s the data Toomey and others are keyed in on.
If it stays like this for another 5-7 or so days, I bet GA opens up much more liberally than they have. |
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oneZone
117 Posts |
Posted - 05/17/2020 : 22:25:37
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quote:
Originally posted by gabbdad24
OneZone, you make some good points, we don’t really know how much cases are declining yet — but we do know that the people screaming that opening up anything was going to cause an immediate (within 14 days) massive spike in hospitalizations and deaths were wrong. On a cumulative cases chart you won’t really see the inflection to a slowdown unless you look at it on a log scale because the slope is so steep. It did clearly change from positive to negative acceleration (upward curve to downward curve) in late April. But anyways, we are testing a lot more so I wouldn’t expect a huge plummet in new cases because old cases were probably way underreported. Hospitalizations and deaths are more important to look at. The quarantine was to turn the upward trajectory down and make sure hospitals didn’t get overwhelmed. At this point it looks like we have been there in GA since late April. Could that change in the future - sure. But we can’t continue to take away people’s liberties and livelihood until everyone agrees it’s “safe” - especially in an election year when, unfortunately, the calls to open or stay closed fall completely along political lines and both sides have incentive to keep those positions.
Thanks. Anyone who was screaming that opening up would cause any significant, measurable consequences within 14 days obviously doesn't understand how this virus works (or how relatively gradual a re-opening would really be). On the flip side, those already declaring victory and sounding the all clear may be just about as far off base!
Log scale is obviously a must if you are comparing multiple sets of data with vastly different raw values. And it can be useful in this case, but there are two reasons I'd still use linear instead. Log is not as intuitive or simple and easy to interpret as linear scale. Plus it can be misleading since once the numbers get high enough, it basically flattens out on its own, which could easily make a significantly worsening daily case rate appear to be improving.
I would agree that hospitalizations or deaths might be more meaningful, but those extend what is already a significant lag time (plus a lot of the same testing issues like availability, accuracy, reporting, etc. can still skew those). The biggest drawback to using cases is that it doesn't factor in rate of testing, but as long as the raw number of new daily cases is in the ballpark it's been in recently, I don't know that it matters much in terms of the risk level.
And yes, it is definitely unfortunate how much of a political issue this has become, but you can say that about way too many things these days.
I'll be out at the ballparks this week (again), so let's wish us all the best!
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oldschool22
50 Posts |
Posted - 05/18/2020 : 00:05:08
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“It is not abundantly clear that new cases and fatalities are on a very sharp decline.”
You are missing several important points here. The decline in new cases is exponential, meaning the lag is decreasing as fewer and fewer new cases are being recorded. Moreover, and this is extremely important to recognize... this sharp decrease in new cases comes during a period where testing has increased dramatically. In fact, more than half of all the COVID tests administered in Georgia have occurred during these past three weeks. So, with testing increasing so significantly, the declining number of new infections is all the more remarkable. Remember, some of you folks were predicting a surge in new cases.
No one is suggesting forcing any players or families to do anything they deem unsafe. OneZone, if you want to hunker at home with your face diaper, knock yourself out. But we’re past the point where some people’s fears are treading on other people’s liberties. I feel blessed to live in a state where our governor has seemingly done his best to protect and reinstate our freedoms as expediently as possible. I find it most unfortunate that a few people actually seem to be cheering on the virus. It is time to play ball. |
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darden17
9 Posts |
Posted - 05/18/2020 : 11:07:01
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Georgia opened back up 3 weeks ago. People are everywhere. Testing has become much easier for anyone.
But yet our number of cases is trending DOWN!
Time to get on with our lives, including back to playing youth baseball. Should be starting back up very soon! |
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Crazyforbball
391 Posts |
Posted - 05/18/2020 : 11:27:44
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My other concern ... are the snitches going to be out in force? "Did you see Johnny's dugout?" The kids weren't standing far enough apart! They FIST BUMPED the guy who hit it out of the park! The parents HUGGED after the win!! Someone better report them to the tournament director" Then there's this one "Coach, I saw the SS sneezing and coughing, he even told my son he wasn't feeling well (never mind it could be allergies), don't you think you should send him home? But hey,MY kid played SS last year, and he's feeling GREAT!" This opens a whole new can of baseball worms. As of April 14 there have been THREE deaths in the US in patients under 18, all with underlying medical conditions. THREE so before people start panicking and snitching, for the sake of our collective sanity, as well as that of our kids. I would kindly request:
1. If you or your son are scared. SIT IT OUT.
2. If you or your son are legitimately SICK, SIT IT OUT.
3. If you are angry the state is open SIT IT OUT.
4. If you are the type who likes to be in other people's business SIT IT OUT.
5. If you are scared and really want to stay home and keep your kid home but feel pressured to play less Johnny falls behind, keep him in shape at home but SIT IT OUT.
6. If grammy and gramps are not of the mindset above, have them SIT IT OUT.
7. If you are worried my kid is going to make yours sick and then infect grammy and gramps who live with you, thus necessitating you policing every dugout and demanding things like no base stealing or tagging, SIT IT OUT.
8. If you are going to demand I wear a mask while sitting alone in my lawn chair 180 feet out along the 3rd baseline OUTDOORS, for all our sakes, Please SIT IT OUT!
They WILL make mistakes like getting too close, or high fiving a teammate, or picking up the wrong set of gloves. Please. Chill and have them wash their hands before eating their hot dog. They will try, and will do their best. It's what baseball kids generally do.
For the rest of us, thank God we live in GA, thank God our boys are getting some much needed exercise, socialization without technology, and fresh air, and let's play ball!
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oneZone
117 Posts |
Posted - 05/18/2020 : 14:21:58
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quote:
Originally posted by oldschool22
“It is not abundantly clear that new cases and fatalities are on a very sharp decline.”
You are missing several important points here. The decline in new cases is exponential, meaning the lag is decreasing as fewer and fewer new cases are being recorded. Moreover, and this is extremely important to recognize... this sharp decrease in new cases comes during a period where testing has increased dramatically. In fact, more than half of all the COVID tests administered in Georgia have occurred during these past three weeks. So, with testing increasing so significantly, the declining number of new infections is all the more remarkable. Remember, some of you folks were predicting a surge in new cases.
No one is suggesting forcing any players or families to do anything they deem unsafe. OneZone, if you want to hunker at home with your face diaper, knock yourself out. But we’re past the point where some people’s fears are treading on other people’s liberties. I feel blessed to live in a state where our governor has seemingly done his best to protect and reinstate our freedoms as expediently as possible. I find it most unfortunate that a few people actually seem to be cheering on the virus. It is time to play ball.
I find it most unfortunate that people think there are people cheering on this virus.
Show me where I suggested the government should force you to stay home.
Show me where I suggested the government should force you to keep your kids in lockdown at home.
Show me where I said I would be at the ballparks again this week. (You could actually find that one.)
I did acknowledge, by the way, that the increased rate of testing would impact (improve) the picture that the cumulative cases shows. But, by how much? What's the rate of false negatives (esp. on the samples taken by patients themselves)? What's the delay between the date the test hits the numbers and when its results actually appear? How many tests reported are the second or third test of the same patient? Etc. Even considering all of that, I still assume the picture is better than that chart shows, but that picture isn't the prettiest to start with.
Another big factor to consider, which is also one of the hardest to measure, is to what extent GA has really "opened up" so far. Or, to what extent we are just practicing a slightly relaxed version of the "stay-at-home" approach that flattened the curve in the first place. Some businesses that can re-open haven't (restaurants, movie theaters, gyms), most churches still haven't returned to in-person services, and of course kids haven't been to school in two months.
Regardless of what anyone thinks the data shows, the point is that none of us really know. And you can say that about the current state of this thing, not to mention what the weeks and months ahead could bring.
I agree we are likely over the hump (or A hump, at least), and I sure hope we are. I just don't think we're out of the woods yet. I think it makes sense to err on the side of caution and do our part to make sure we get all the way through this thing without a big setback. In other words, I don't just want to have Summer baseball, I want
Fall ball and basketball, too!
See you at the ballparks.
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Chet
28 Posts |
Posted - 05/18/2020 : 15:09:16
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“None of us really know” is the mantra of the “We need to wait til the risk is gone”
At less than 10% positive, the prevalence is low and the ability of this virus to scourge the populace is lower than many risks we already accept as a nation. Honest public health people know this and are saying it in private but they won’t dare say it at a press conference. |
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oneZone
117 Posts |
Posted - 05/18/2020 : 19:41:35
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quote:
Originally posted by Chet
“None of us really know” is the mantra of the “We need to wait til the risk is gone”
At less than 10% positive, the prevalence is low and the ability of this virus to scourge the populace is lower than many risks we already accept as a nation. Honest public health people know this and are saying it in private but they won’t dare say it at a press conference.
Sorry, maybe I should have said ALMOST none of us really know. Lol.
One thing we do all know is that driving, for example, involves risk. 1,500 people died from car accidents last year in GA. I'm not saying anyone should sell their cars and stop driving, and I'm not selling mine. But I am gonna wear my seatbelt. And I really hope the guy driving toward me on this dark curve ahead isn't screwing around on his phone.
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Chet
28 Posts |
Posted - 05/18/2020 : 22:01:37
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That’s kind of my point, for the vast majority of Georgians, the risk of death or major injury in a car wreck is greater than death from COVID.
I’m not saying anybody here is off their rocker, just that it seems many are looking for a level of safety that is mostly unachievable. |
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oldschool22
50 Posts |
Posted - 05/18/2020 : 22:35:05
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“ I think it makes sense to err on the side of caution and do our part to make sure we get all the way through this thing without a big setback.”
We have inflicted enormous harm upon millions of Americans. We have done way more than “our part”. We are sick of sanctimonious calls for continued shutdowns. This was supposed to be “30 Days to Slow the Spread”. We are way, way past that point. Millions of our fellow citizens are losing their jobs, businesses and eventually their homes. All for what? The states that did intensive lockdowns did no better than those who were less draconian. Georgia numbers are WAY DOWN since reopening. You pro-virus people are getting a bit old with the “big setback” nonsense.
But since this is a baseball site... For some exceptionally talented athletes, these lockdowns have been crushing as they missed out on key opportunities. It is critical for some ball players to have a summer season. Obviously safety is of paramount importance, but as I asserted earlier in this thread, the numbers have been collapsing during a period of dramatically increased testing. It is time for ball players to make their own decisions regarding any remaining risks. Baseball can be such an important part of America’s recovery. |
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oneZone
117 Posts |
Posted - 05/18/2020 : 23:56:48
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quote:
Originally posted by oldschool22
“ I think it makes sense to err on the side of caution and do our part to make sure we get all the way through this thing without a big setback.”
We have inflicted enormous harm upon millions of Americans. We have done way more than “our part”. We are sick of sanctimonious calls for continued shutdowns. This was supposed to be “30 Days to Slow the Spread”. We are way, way past that point. Millions of our fellow citizens are losing their jobs, businesses and eventually their homes. All for what? The states that did intensive lockdowns did no better than those who were less draconian. Georgia numbers are WAY DOWN since reopening. You pro-virus people are getting a bit old with the “big setback” nonsense.
But since this is a baseball site... For some exceptionally talented athletes, these lockdowns have been crushing as they missed out on key opportunities. It is critical for some ball players to have a summer season. Obviously safety is of paramount importance, but as I asserted earlier in this thread, the numbers have been collapsing during a period of dramatically increased testing. It is time for ball players to make their own decisions regarding any remaining risks. Baseball can be such an important part of America’s recovery.
"You pro-virus people"? That might actually offend me if it wasn't such a dumb thing to say. You should probably ignore my posts here and start calling and emailing your elected officials instead. They're the ones trampling your civil liberties and continuing this crushing lockdown of your exceptional athlete, not me.
By the way, it wasn't supposed to be "30 Days to Slow the Spread," it was supposed to be "15 Days." That started March 16 with 4,226 cases in the U.S. The "30 Days" didn't start until March 31 when cases had climbed to 186,101. Not sure exactly how many cases there were at the end of the 30 days because the CDC stopped publishing historical data on April 27 at 981,246 cases.
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Edited by - oneZone on 05/19/2020 09:20:43 |
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Crazyforbball
391 Posts |
Posted - 05/19/2020 : 01:04:37
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| Furman is doing away with baseball due to covid. More casualties to follow. ENOUGH IS ENOUGH. |
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oldschool22
50 Posts |
Posted - 05/19/2020 : 10:46:36
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“"You pro-virus people"? That might actually offend me if it wasn't such a dumb thing to say“
Actually, it’s a fairly accurate representation of the dichotomous factions that have established themselves in our country. Through your own words, you have clearly advocated what you call a “cautious” approach to returning to normalcy. Others believe delays in repealing governmental overreaches are causing great harm. The news out of Furman is devastating to those players who have committed years of their lives to attaining that level of play.
Whether or not the lockdowns were effective will be debated at the appropriate time, but the pertinent issue right now is that this protracted re-opening in the name of “caution” is causing immense difficulty for so many folks. That is why we are beginning to see outright civil disobedience across the country. We can’t undo the damage caused by the virus and our response to it, but we CAN try to mitigate the tragedy by allowing folks to save their jobs, businesses, homes... and baseball season. |
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KentMurphy
96 Posts |
Posted - 05/20/2020 : 14:35:35
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quote:
Originally posted by Crazyforbball
1. If you or your son are scared. SIT IT OUT.
2. If you or your son are legitimately SICK, SIT IT OUT.
3. If you are angry the state is open SIT IT OUT.
4. If you are the type who likes to be in other people's business SIT IT OUT.
5. If you are scared and really want to stay home and keep your kid home but feel pressured to play less Johnny falls behind, keep him in shape at home but SIT IT OUT.
6. If grammy and gramps are not of the mindset above, have them SIT IT OUT.
7. If you are worried my kid is going to make yours sick and then infect grammy and gramps who live with you, thus necessitating you policing every dugout and demanding things like no base stealing or tagging, SIT IT OUT.
8. If you are going to demand I wear a mask while sitting alone in my lawn chair 180 feet out along the 3rd baseline OUTDOORS, for all our sakes, Please SIT IT OUT!
The best post ALL YEAR. Coach's should send this to, and require a signature from parents on, these before Johnny can take the field. Period.
TL @ ATPP had their "day camps" over this past weekend. All coaches were told, if A (singular) parent is overheard complaining-- the parents will have to leave the stands-- ALL OF THEM. Guess what happened? Yup, a 'Karen' was overheard complaining Saturday, and all the stands on both fields were cleared. Parents relegated to their cars in the parking lot. |
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Crazyforbball
391 Posts |
Posted - 05/23/2020 : 11:48:45
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| So still another middle finger from Kemp to youth sports despite 1000's of letters, emails, facebook posts, signed petitions. While other states are charging ahead, we remain stuck in the ever elusive "phase 1." What gives? Guess we'll all be having to make multiple expensive and time consuming trips to FL this summer to play in actual tournaments vs a summer of "camps" only. UGH. |
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Shale6924
10 Posts |
Posted - 05/23/2020 : 17:29:32
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| I have a house rented for the WWBA in July that I have to cancel by June 10. What is your all's gut feeling?? I am shocked that Georgia was one of the first states to open up but still no sports. I really thought we would be playing in the next week or two. |
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Crazyforbball
391 Posts |
Posted - 05/24/2020 : 00:32:19
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| Sadly my gut says Kemp won't even think about it until mid June. I hope I'm wrong. |
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playhardhavefun
11 Posts |
Posted - 05/25/2020 : 20:11:55
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| Well Kemp did get a tongue lashing from Trump for opening too soon, so he might be a little gun shy now. |
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oneZone
117 Posts |
Posted - 05/25/2020 : 23:59:33
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quote:
Originally posted by playhardhavefun
Well Kemp did get a tongue lashing from Trump for opening too soon, so he might be a little gun shy now.
After initially jumping all over Kemp saying he was "opening" GA too soon, Trump quickly changed his tune to appeal to his base and now praises Kemp. Basically, he wants to LIBERATE GA, like most of us do!
But the problem isn't with Trump or Kemp. No, sir. It's these dang "pro-virus people" out there. They can't sit around with their face diapers on and ruin everything for all of us. The best solution is to call them out on forums and social media, and to otherwise do what you would normally do (with zero caution, tho, just to be clear). That's the best and fastest way to get our exceptional athletes back on the field at tourneys!
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2020 Summer Games - Thoughts?
