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 Does young elite talent carry into later years
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RUSemiPro

95 Posts

Posted - 12/18/2018 :  07:41:36  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Well Said.

quote:
Originally posted by JCOP

Talent and size is overrated. Can it help? Sure, but the steroid era is over. The last two American League MVPs averaged 5’ 7” and 169 lbs. I see bigger 10U kids. What those two guys have in common is the desire to be the best, and the willingness to sacrifice everything to get there. Does a kid need to have some athletic ability? No doubt. Do you have to be 6’ 2” 215lb? Absolutely not. Can you play at a high level going to the cages once a week for 30 minutes? Not a chance. In the long run, attitude, effort, and putting in the practice time will ALWAYS beat talent. Show me a talented high level ball player at any age, and I’ll show you a kid that breathes baseball and simply puts in more time than the kids around him. Parents see a kid on the team that’s better than their kid, and they say “well he’s just more talented”. What they don’t see is that kid going home after a long practice and hitting balls off a tee in the garage, while their kid runs off to play Fortnite.

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Hurricane

351 Posts

Posted - 12/18/2018 :  11:22:19  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by JCOP

Talent and size is overrated. Can it help? Sure, but the steroid era is over. The last two American League MVPs averaged 5’ 7” and 169 lbs. I see bigger 10U kids. What those two guys have in common is the desire to be the best, and the willingness to sacrifice everything to get there. Does a kid need to have some athletic ability? No doubt. Do you have to be 6’ 2” 215lb? Absolutely not. Can you play at a high level going to the cages once a week for 30 minutes? Not a chance. In the long run, attitude, effort, and putting in the practice time will ALWAYS beat talent. Show me a talented high level ball player at any age, and I’ll show you a kid that breathes baseball and simply puts in more time than the kids around him. Parents see a kid on the team that’s better than their kid, and they say “well he’s just more talented”. What they don’t see is that kid going home after a long practice and hitting balls off a tee in the garage, while their kid runs off to play Fortnite.

I'll agree and disagree. The last 2 National League MVP's average 6-4 and a half, 220 pounds. Size really doesn't matter in baseball but Speed and Arm Strength do. No matter how many times you run and throw these 2 things will not increase a great amount based on work ethic. They can improve but only so much. I have seen more kids get a chance to play in college that had natural gifts but were very lazy. The fact remains most ended up back at home after a year or 2. I do not agree with "In the long run, attitude, effort, and putting in the practice time will ALWAYS beat talent." ALWAYS is a big word. The difference is most kids without talent are done playing baseball before they hit 15. So most of the kids playing have some form of talent and or work ethic, but I agree those that work harder usually do pretty good if you are talking high school but not after that. When you get to the time your player is going after college scholarships, you will see the reality of what coaches are looking for.
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CaCO3Girl

1989 Posts

Posted - 12/18/2018 :  13:15:20  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by JCOP

Talent and size is overrated. Can it help? Sure, but the steroid era is over. The last two American League MVPs averaged 5’ 7” and 169 lbs.



Dude, those guys are exceptions, not the rule. Do you know how many 5'7 169 pound kids won't even get to play baseball in high school because of their size and arm strength????? Let alone college or beyond. One would have to be an exceptional athlete, that didn't have the usual pitfalls that naturally comes with that size. Like it or not the term projectability is critical in the recruitment process today, and if you are a senior and a 5'7 170# player, you aren't projectable. I can't say I agree with how the sport has gone, where measurables rule over the eye test, but it is what it is. Don't pin your hopes and dreams on the likes of Mookie.
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JCOP

7 Posts

Posted - 12/18/2018 :  13:24:42  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Hurricane,

I’ll agree with everything you said, in context. You’re referring to being gifted, not talented. One you can acquire, and the other you cannot. Someone can become talented at something, in this case baseball but it applies to anything, by doing all those things I mention in my original post....effort, attitude, work ethic, i.e. putting in the time. These things directly define what it means to be talented. So in essence, the harder you work, the more talented you become.

Gifted is something that can’t be learned.....size, arm strength, speed, all those things you mention. I’m certainly not implying that a kid can throw 95 mph by working hard and having a good attitude. Or that a college coach is going to pick a kid that hits .250 in high school because he’s a great teammate and a good locker room guy. Those would be asinine statements.

I didn’t reference an “end game”, if you will, but since you mention high school and college scholarships....I think we’d both agree that it takes a combination of both talent and physical gifts to play baseball, or any sport, at a high level.
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Punishers

688 Posts

Posted - 12/18/2018 :  13:30:25  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
So if your kid is not going to be 6-5, quit now? Talent is like that person at work who brown noses. It will only get you so far until found out they have no real skills.
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dgersh22

169 Posts

Posted - 12/18/2018 :  15:50:48  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
I think when everyone talks about the size and talent to play at the next level that everyone thinks D1 baseball and forgets about the approximately 1150 D2, D3, NAIA, and Juco schools that offer baseball as well. As the father of a 5'8", 165lb D2 college junior who has been a starter since the 2nd game of his freshman year, I agree it takes a lot of heart and hard work to go along with the talent he was born with. Since he was young he outworked everyone at practice, in the game and in the classroom. It bothered me when I seen less talented larger kids get better offers, but many of them are no longer playing or are on their 3rd school still looking for that chance to break into the line-up. My son went to the school that fit him academically and athletically.

Most everyone mentions that the smaller kids don't get an opportunity, I happened to look at the rosters from the Gulf South Conference. Most likely one of the most competitive conferences in D2. Of 13 rosters there was an average of 8 players per roster that were 5'10" or under. I chose 5'10" because most of the college kids I know like to be measured in their spikes. Their was at least another 4-5 per roster that measured only at 6"0'. Ironically the 2 teams with the fewest small players finished in the bottom 3rd of the league last year. So this is 156 "non-projectable" players getting to live out their dream in one conference. if that is the average in the schools that are not D1 that is over 14,000 players under 6'. Looks to me like their is a place for those "non-projectable", hard working players with heart.

How many of you parents who have kids over 6'0" who have great talent, have dreams of your child playing D1 baseball? For everyone that does get to play, I can name you about 5 or 6 that never got the offer, or did get the offer and never touched the field and left the school and went some where else or never played again. I can also name you a lot of players that had lower offers as well that that happened to. It takes heart, dedication, and hard-work and once in awhile more often than not LUCK to stay and play at the next level.
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takeit4aride

5 Posts

Posted - 12/18/2018 :  15:57:02  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Does elite talent carry over into the later years? I've seen many gifted/talented baseball players over the years. I see on this thread that when some of these "studs" are at the younger age groups they tend to get weened out because the "fields get bigger", "puberty", "they're not working as hard as the next kid", etc. While a lot of this is true, there is one thing that I haven't seen mentioned. Some parents just can't afford it as their kid(s) get older!! Baseball gets more expensive as these young men get older. $3000 to $4000 just for the summer ball for some of the top organizations. That doesn't include travel, training, and showcases. Many middle class families with two or more children that play sports or other activities just can't afford it so you see some of these gifted young baseball players who were studs move to other sports. They definitely don't lose their athleticism. When I was younger my parents didn't have to mortgage their home so I could play sports. Youth sports has gotten out of control. I've seen post on the youth threads where people are asking, "are there teams less than 3000k". Wow. What's happened to the sport I love?
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Punishers

688 Posts

Posted - 12/18/2018 :  17:20:26  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by takeit4aride

Does elite talent carry over into the later years? I've seen many gifted/talented baseball players over the years. I see on this thread that when some of these "studs" are at the younger age groups they tend to get weened out because the "fields get bigger", "puberty", "they're not working as hard as the next kid", etc. While a lot of this is true, there is one thing that I haven't seen mentioned. Some parents just can't afford it as their kid(s) get older!! Baseball gets more expensive as these young men get older. $3000 to $4000 just for the summer ball for some of the top organizations. That doesn't include travel, training, and showcases. Many middle class families with two or more children that play sports or other activities just can't afford it so you see some of these gifted young baseball players who were studs move to other sports. They definitely don't lose their athleticism. When I was younger my parents didn't have to mortgage their home so I could play sports. Youth sports has gotten out of control. I've seen post on the youth threads where people are asking, "are there teams less than 3000k". Wow. What's happened to the sport I love?



The dream has to be sold to some one. You are right tho. The price does get real after 13u and a lot will be left behind because of the costs. I know some paying 5k and I know some playing for free.
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JCOP

7 Posts

Posted - 12/18/2018 :  17:27:33  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Geesh, who had 3 posts as the over/under before finding my first message board “lifer” on here....

Cacogirl - Dude, you’re dealing in obscurities and irrelavance and trying to pass it as truth based on your own biases. I like to deal in facts. Fact, the last two AL MVPs are teeny tiny guys. Fact, 6 of the top 8 finishers in 2018 AL MVP voting are 6’ or shorter, including Jose Ramirez who finished 3rd (like Betts, 5’ 9”), Francisco Linder (5’ 11”) and Khris Davis (5’ 10”).

I’m just under 6’ 1” and a lean(ish) 210 lbs, and the majority (which would be the rule, not exception) of the Braves lineup is MUCH smaller than me. When I go to Braves games, I sit in the 2nd row about 5 feet from the on deck circle...Ender, Ozzie, Dansby, Camargo, Culberson, Acuna, they are not big guys. Honestly I was shocked the first time I sat down there how small they were. Almost all of them are ALL STAR-caliber players.

So how could all these guys make it all the way to the pinnacle of the sport if they didn’t “project” well, by your definition? Because they’re phenomenal athletes whose ability transcends physical size. And in fact (and I’ll admit I had to look this up), the average major league player is 6’ 1” 190 lbs, which means that there are likely HUNDREDS of players in the MLB under 6’ tall.

If you want to debate being bigger and stronger as an athlete is an advantage, I wouldn’t argue that. If you go back to my original post and read it again, and digest it before going straight into the typical message board lifer, knee-jerk reaction of “he’s wrong and I’m going to prove I’m right”, you’ll see I simply said size is overrated. That’s my opinion, but I’m backing it up with some compelling facts.
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dgersh22

169 Posts

Posted - 12/18/2018 :  21:01:58  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Preach on JCOP! Yes size and strength are great in any sport. But baseball is a quick twitch sport, using a lot of smaller muscles to create bat speed, quick hands, amazing first steps, etc.

Take a look at many of the major league hall of famers from years past to present. I looked at some of my favorite players from all-time - Aaron, Bagwell, Biggio, Brett, Brock, Clemente, Gehrig, R. Henderson, Koufax, Maddox, Musial, Ozzie Smith where all 6'0 and under. Most of the best pitchers ever where 6'2" and under.


If anything besides the steroid era we are just now seeing the large influx of long and big players. Mainly because we are a generation that loves the long ball and is in love with the radar gun. We are in the strikeout or hit a home run era.

Amazing though when you look at teams that had the fewest amount of times striking out and see where they finished in 2018, here is the bottom 7 teams- Atlanta, Washington, Boston, Pittsburgh, Seattle, Houston, and Cleveland. How many of them where in the playoffs? There was only one team that was in the top 7 striking out offensively that made the playoffs-Milwaukee. Now on the other hand though there was only one team out of the top ten in K'ing batters that made the playoffs- Cubs. The rest where in the top 10. SO if I was going to go after big players it would be pitchers, who can create leverage.
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CaCO3Girl

1989 Posts

Posted - 12/19/2018 :  07:20:03  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Again, there are exceptions to the rule. HOWEVER, I didn't create the rules. Why does a pitcher's 60 time even matter? Why does it matter if a MIF kid is a lefty...as long as he can get to the ball why does it matter? Why does exit velo count more than RBI's? Why does velo count more than K's? We are living in the age of metrics! Can a 5'8 kid who is absolutely exceptional play D1, of course he can, but it's beyond rare. Can a D3 kid make it to MLB, of course he can, but again, RARE!

I'm not speaking as a parent of a D1 player, I'm speaking as a parent watching the boards and the coaches and seeing that metrics are the number one factor today in recruitment. This sports is evolving and changing so fast it can make your head spin. Even those people who had their kid go through the recruitment process 4 years ago have outdated info. Now we are in a time where baseball players tweet out their offers, and coaches care less about character than they do about velo. the whole sport is going downhill in my opinion. It use to be that results mattered, now the abstract non-game time numbers matter more. I don't get it, but I'm not going to be blind and bury my head in the sand either. Holding up rare examples isn't doing anyone any favors. Players need to work hard, but if they LOOK the part it makes the process easier.
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Crazyforbball

391 Posts

Posted - 12/28/2018 :  10:27:15  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Height and weight do not equate to arm strength, or speed, or batting average. There are plenty of shorter, lighter, guys who have amazing arm strength, and it doesn't have to be from the mound. Teams still need fielders and there is definitely plenty of room for super fast, super agile, close to the ground kids with that kind of arm strength. Not to confuse SMALL with WEAK. There is a difference. Coupled with those who have the pure natural skill set, instinct, and reaction time..much of that can't be taught...AND the work ethic..for those who have those pieces of the puzzle..their odds are as good as anyone moving on. And I totally agree that D1 is not the only show in town.

Edited by - Crazyforbball on 12/28/2018 10:33:54
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Vandy

36 Posts

Posted - 01/09/2019 :  15:50:40  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Just a little perspective. Baseball is a sport driven and managed by numbers and percentages. Yes Altuve is 5'7". He is so far outside the scope of probability that he would generally be dismissed. It is very rare for a sub 6 footer to go far early in the projection process unless your are 1) close to BB ave size, fast as hell, and I mean REALLY fast, Bat with an exceptional average against the very best, likewise have an outstanding On Base Average. The best gloves are a dime a dozen. Crush the ball but can't run? You better be an outstanding catcher. Play shortstop? Better learn to play third and center too. There are always the kids who produce on small diamonds when young. At 16, they better be able to hit a good 80+ MPH slider, likewise CRUSH an 80mph fastball up or over. You better have at or very near 80+ mph arm speed at any position on the field. As mentioned, nothing happens until puberty and you better hope it happens before 15. At 16 my son at 5'11" 176 is the smallest kid on his team. It's a good one. Most of the kids are 6'2"- 6'6", look like men, and dominate. 2-3 kids pitch well over 90mph as 15-16yo's, all are over 80. I guess my point in all of this is that there is way too much emphasis placed on all of this before kids are even at a reasonable age / size / level of performance that is subjectively comparative. It is exactly the reason so many poor quality travel academies exist. They'll blow smoke of every color and flavor to that dreamy unrealistic parent of a kid that likely will never make the Freshman squad.
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bama21

278 Posts

Posted - 01/10/2019 :  09:21:08  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Let's use Bryce Harper as an example for this question. He was the elitist of the elite at a young age, but did it translate into mega success in the MLB? I would say no.

Although, he is about to get paid a ridiculous amount of money, is he worth it? Again, I say no, no one player is worth that.

His numbers over his 7 year career are not great by any stretch of the imagination. He is a career .279 hitter with an OBP of .388 and has only driven in 100 RBI's one time in his career.

He made $21 million last year while batting .249, with 550 at bats and struck out 169 times. He made $38,181 dollars for every at bat. He made $6.4 million for his strikeouts. Not a bad way to make a living is it?

So, back to the question, does elite talent carry over into later years? From this example, maybe not, but you can still make tons of money from being labeled an elite talent.
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bama21

278 Posts

Posted - 01/10/2019 :  12:08:29  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
He struck out almost a 1/3rd of the time and is still going to get paid around $300 million.

And some of you wonder why parents are paying thousands to get "little Johnny" a shot.
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Punishers

688 Posts

Posted - 01/10/2019 :  13:21:23  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Vandy

Just a little perspective. Baseball is a sport driven and managed by numbers and percentages. Yes Altuve is 5'7". He is so far outside the scope of probability that he would generally be dismissed. It is very rare for a sub 6 footer to go far early in the projection process unless your are 1) close to BB ave size, fast as hell, and I mean REALLY fast, Bat with an exceptional average against the very best, likewise have an outstanding On Base Average. The best gloves are a dime a dozen. Crush the ball but can't run? You better be an outstanding catcher. Play shortstop? Better learn to play third and center too. There are always the kids who produce on small diamonds when young. At 16, they better be able to hit a good 80+ MPH slider, likewise CRUSH an 80mph fastball up or over. You better have at or very near 80+ mph arm speed at any position on the field. As mentioned, nothing happens until puberty and you better hope it happens before 15. At 16 my son at 5'11" 176 is the smallest kid on his team. It's a good one. Most of the kids are 6'2"- 6'6", look like men, and dominate. 2-3 kids pitch well over 90mph as 15-16yo's, all are over 80. I guess my point in all of this is that there is way too much emphasis placed on all of this before kids are even at a reasonable age / size / level of performance that is subjectively comparative. It is exactly the reason so many poor quality travel academies exist. They'll blow smoke of every color and flavor to that dreamy unrealistic parent of a kid that likely will never make the Freshman squad.



Vandy is right. Just wait til puberty sets in. There will still be room for late bloomers at 17 and 18.
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CaCO3Girl

1989 Posts

Posted - 01/11/2019 :  07:17:26  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by bama21

Let's use Bryce Harper as an example for this question. He was the elitist of the elite at a young age, but did it translate into mega success in the MLB? I would say no.

Although, he is about to get paid a ridiculous amount of money, is he worth it? Again, I say no, no one player is worth that.

His numbers over his 7 year career are not great by any stretch of the imagination. He is a career .279 hitter with an OBP of .388 and has only driven in 100 RBI's one time in his career.

He made $21 million last year while batting .249, with 550 at bats and struck out 169 times. He made $38,181 dollars for every at bat. He made $6.4 million for his strikeouts. Not a bad way to make a living is it?

So, back to the question, does elite talent carry over into later years? From this example, maybe not, but you can still make tons of money from being labeled an elite talent.



You would say no????? The guy made 21 MILLION last yer, and that's NOT a MEGA success?

Dude are you that parent that asks the kid where the other 2 points are when he comes home with a 98% on a test?

Anyone who makes 21 MILLION dollars a year is MEGA successful.
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bama21

278 Posts

Posted - 01/11/2019 :  12:03:09  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
I was referring to his success on the field (elite talent), not in his bank account. Money isn't the only way to measure success, although society seems to think so now days.

I don't believe anyone would say his career numbers are that of an elite MLB player.

And yes, I am that parent.
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743

215 Posts

Posted - 01/14/2019 :  09:46:41  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
ANYONE WHO SAYS... NO IT DID NOT TRANSLATE FOR BRYCE HARPER IS DELUSIONAL.....
Let's use Bryce Harper as an example for this question. He was the elitist of the elite at a young age, but did it translate into mega success in the MLB? I would say no.

If you would have told me Bryce Harper would have been in the MLB at his age... when he was younger 12 even 13 I would have said no way in hell....
To get drafted you are elite... to play in the big leagues you are freaking crazy elite... to start in the MLB come on.... are you serious... He is competing with the best in the world.....
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bama21

278 Posts

Posted - 01/14/2019 :  11:18:12  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
He was on the national stage at 12 and 13.....he was labeled "The Chosen One" and the "LeBron of baseball". Has his career, so far, lived up to the hype? Not even close.

No matter what level you are playing at, you will be compared to your peers and the numbers (Stats) that they/you are putting up. So, if you are in the majors, then you are playing with players of your same caliber, correct? The answer is yes and if you are elite at this level, then you should still be performing at a high level. Trout is in the same league and he is an elite player and that was what this topic was about.

Harper was considered an elite talent his whole life, but in the majors, he is not so elite and maybe even average. Is he considered an elite player for being in the majors, of course, but that is compared to the rest of the population and not your competition level.
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CaCO3Girl

1989 Posts

Posted - 01/14/2019 :  12:21:01  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by bama21

He was on the national stage at 12 and 13.....he was labeled "The Chosen One" and the "LeBron of baseball". Has his career, so far, lived up to the hype? Not even close.

No matter what level you are playing at, you will be compared to your peers and the numbers (Stats) that they/you are putting up. So, if you are in the majors, then you are playing with players of your same caliber, correct? The answer is yes and if you are elite at this level, then you should still be performing at a high level. Trout is in the same league and he is an elite player and that was what this topic was about.

Harper was considered an elite talent his whole life, but in the majors, he is not so elite and maybe even average. Is he considered an elite player for being in the majors, of course, but that is compared to the rest of the population and not your competition level.



The highest batting average for 2018 was 0.346 (Mookie Betts), he only hit in 80 guys. So which is more important?

It's not like there are guys swinging 0.600 or something. 0.249 for this past season isn't great, but it's not poo either with 100 RBI's, which makes him 16th in MLB on RBI's.
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743

215 Posts

Posted - 01/14/2019 :  14:22:28  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Will Bryce Harper make the HOF? We don't know yet, Can you say anyone that makes the HOF is not elite?
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bama21

278 Posts

Posted - 01/15/2019 :  08:50:32  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
To answer your question, it should be a combination of things. To be an elite player (whatever level you are playing at), then you should do everything at a high level. That's my definition of an elite player and that shouldn't matter whether you are playing in tee ball or the MLB.

Also, I believe this came up on another discussion topic, where the love of the long ball is driving todays game. If you hit homeruns, then you can strike out a lot, have a low batting average, and play so, so defense and no one cares. To me, Harper has become this type of player.

Of the two most sought after free agents this year (Harper and Machado), I would take Machado over Harper. They both have attitude problems, but I think Machado is closer to the elite status than is Harper.

As far as the HOF, to early to call that. He has name recognition and that is always a plus with the sports writers. On a side note, until they let the all time hits leader back in the game (and HOF), then the HOF really isn't the elite of the elite.

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743

215 Posts

Posted - 01/15/2019 :  14:40:57  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
I agree Rose deserves to be in the Hall of Fame. As do the steroids users, alcohol users, acid, speed users, HGH users, Coke, Adderall. The numbers speak for themselves. Heck I heard the other day Babe Ruth tried to inject something from goat testiciles back in the day and got sick. Nothing surprises me to get ahead now days.
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hshuler

1074 Posts

Posted - 01/16/2019 :  16:18:38  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Elite talent is not synonymous with the best players. I think the terms are confused at times.

Example, big, strong kid may dominate early on but is not tremendously talented. This player’s domination may not carry into the later years.

I think elite talent does carry into the later years when developed but they are too many variables in determining how successful a player may become.


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