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Punishers
688 Posts |
 Posted - 07/30/2017 : 15:45:56
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quote:
Originally posted by dad4kids
There are some age specific limitations to most of these points. Bigger and slower kids can get by at the younger ages with shorter base paths and smaller fields. Not so much on the big fields. There's always going to be a spot for a kid who can hit it out over 300' fences or throw 90+ but few competitive teams at 14+ are gonna settle for a kid who is HR or single, can't ever steal a base, and is a defensive liability even at 1B. And there are plenty of slow and small kids too. That's why the first part of virtually every tryout is timing in the 60. Who the heck has time to make the kids run a mile when that time doesn't matter anyway? It's not cross country.
Speed and athleticism are the difference makers.
Very true. The bigger the field the more kids will get weeded out. I've seen 11u kids get gassed trying to run the horn (home to home). Seen many that could not physically make it. Saw a 15u game and didn't see any bacon on no team. Most of them looked like basketball players. Tall and slender. Quick on base path and in fielding. Atheletic and skilled. |
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bama21
278 Posts |
Posted - 07/31/2017 : 07:11:13
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No team has a roster full of 5 tool players, even in the MLB, most do not have all 5 tools, they have varying degrees of each. Usually, 1 or more of the tools are lacking and average at best. Arguably, the best player in the game is Trout and the knock on him, is arm strength.
Coaches are not just looking for speed and speed is by no means "the only separator of talent", their looking for a combination of tools. What if the kid is the fastest at the tryouts, but can't hit? What good is that going to do you, do you think his parents will be happy with him being a full-time pinch runner? I don't think so. |
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bama21
278 Posts |
Posted - 07/31/2017 : 07:24:01
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This is from a scouting website:
How does a scout grade each of the 5 tools?
Scouts use a 20-to-80 scale to grade each tool. 50 is considered major league average with 20 at the lowest and 80 at elite status. Neither extreme is given out very often. Some scouts may use a 2-to-8 scale, which is basically the same, only that the 20-80 scale is used in increments of 5 (50, 55, 60, etc.) rather than increments of 1 (5, 6, etc.).
For a player to be considered a quality major league prospect, he should be above average in at least two of the tools. A player who is above major league average in only one tool will be considered one-dimensional. A player who is average across the board with no “plus” tool will be deemed mediocre and likely suited for a bench or utility role. If each tool is considered potentially above major league average, he gets that prestigious label of being a “5-tool prospect”.
Sample scouting grade for Player X:
Hitting: 60 (above average)
Power: 40 (below average)
Fielding: 55 (average-to-above average)
Arm: 50 (average)
Speed: 65 (well above average)
From these sample grades, I would assume this player is a leadoff hitter, likely playing a middle-infield position or centerfield.
How can you tell?
The first cue follows the old scouting adage: “Defense up the middle; power in the corners.” The lack of power from Player X lessens the chances he will play a corner infield (1st base or 3rd base) or corner outfield (leftfield or rightfield) position.
Secondly, his speed will put him in centerfield unless there is a tremendous defensive outfielder on the team who may push him to leftfield. If he is kept in the infield, his average arm strength is the only tool that might force him to the right side of second base if there is a stronger and better defensive shortstop on the roster.
Finally, his hitting ability would allow him to hit in the top third of the order. His speed and lack of power seal the deal as a leadoff hitter. If he lacked speed and had power potential, he’d be a key run-producer, likely 3rd or 4th.
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bama21
278 Posts |
Posted - 07/31/2017 : 07:43:25
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Another tidbit to ponder:
So, which tools are better suited for each position?
You’d like to know, wouldn’t you? Baseball America has supplied a synopsis of what a scout envisions about the ideal player for each position. He observes the tools of a player and matches it with the profile of a position that is most suitable. Here is how each position profiles, ranking the importance of each tool from greatest to least:
Catcher- Fielding Arm Hitting Power Speed
First base- Hitting Power Fielding Arm Speed
Second base- Hitting Fielding Power Speed Arm
Third Base- Hitting Power Fielding Arm Speed
Shortstop- Fielding Arm Hitting Speed Power
Left field- Hitting Power Fielding Arm Speed
Center field- Fielding Hitting Speed Power Arm
Right field- Hitting Power Arm Fielding Speed
Note that hitting is the most desired tool at each position except the traditionally defensive-oriented positions of catcher, shortstop and centerfield which each have fielding first. In fact, hitting ranks no lower than the third most desired tool at any position. Also note that hitting always precedes power.
What this failed to mention is that hitting also always precedes speed.
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CaCO3Girl
1989 Posts |
Posted - 07/31/2017 : 07:52:39
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Life isn't fair and there are exceptions to every rule. Yes, it's always good to tell the kids to work harder but the truth is the coach has 80+ kids trying out for his team and he doesn't HAVE to take slow and big because well over 50 slim and fast kids showed up.
You guys don't have to like it, but the reality is (on a TRAVEL 15u and up team) the coach is looking for:
1. Position players between 5'10 and 6'2, pitchers 6'0 -6'8
2. Position players will be between 160-200#'s
3. They will all run a mile well under 8 minutes, most under 6 (It is widely accepted you can walk a mile in 15 minutes)
4. All will be athletic in every move they makes
5. Pitchers will throw over 80, 16u and up over 85
High School team the most important trait is athleticism, THEN talent. You could easily turn a wide receiver into an out fielder, but you can't make a huge kid fast enough to chase down the ball at the fence while the batter passes third.
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Bravemom
204 Posts |
Posted - 07/31/2017 : 10:40:20
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I don't think anyone said hitting or fielding wasn't important. If you have reached post 15u, I hope you know how to hit! That is undrstood and a given.
What I was saying, based on my experience, and in speaking with coaches who played professionally, speed and athleticism plays a major role in the divide.
In the older ages ALL kids can hit and ALL kids can field. What separated the higher level kids was speed and athleticism.
I could always tell the higher level teams at Lakepoint by how athletic the kids were. NOT by how tall they were or if they were hitting them to the fence.
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bama21
278 Posts |
Posted - 07/31/2017 : 10:51:34
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| Again, running a mile has NOTHING to do with playing baseball. As far as speed, some posters seem to think that is the most important tool. Well, look at where speed ranks compared to the other tools in 5 of the 8 fielding positions and it is not first in any. All tools are rated and athleticism is a part of all 5, the more athletic you are the better you will rate in each. |
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bama21
278 Posts |
Posted - 07/31/2017 : 11:29:30
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Per Perfect Game:
For 2020 Grad
FB 79 mph will rank you at 65.10%, over half of the class and
avg FB is 76 mph.
For 2019 grad:
FB 84 mph will rank you at 78.67%, over 3/4's of the class throw below 85 mph, with the avg being 80 mph.
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CaCO3Girl
1989 Posts |
Posted - 07/31/2017 : 13:50:00
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quote:
Originally posted by bama21
Per Perfect Game:
For 2020 Grad
FB 79 mph will rank you at 65.10%, over half of the class and
avg FB is 76 mph.
For 2019 grad:
FB 84 mph will rank you at 78.67%, over 3/4's of the class throw below 85 mph, with the avg being 80 mph.
And we need to see the 2019's that are on the AA team that practices 20 minutes away from lakepoint and are averaging 65mph. They are wonderful for padding the stats.
As to the speed comment on where it ranks...do you think the RF is running a 8.2 60??? He's not. They are calling a 7.2 SLOW, it's the 6.6 guys that they are calling speedy.
To succeed past high school at a high level you have to have abnormal ability. Not everyone can track a 95+mph ball to the plate, run a 6.6 60, throw 85+ from the OF, and/or stop a ball moving with an exit velo of 90+. i.e. NOT EVERYONE IS SPECIAL!!!!! But to bring this back around to the topic...parents are screaming at their kids like they are special and never EVER mess up. Just sad! |
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dad4kids
109 Posts |
Posted - 07/31/2017 : 16:52:55
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It's a little known fact that if you yell extra loud at your kids they will run faster, hit farther, field better, and throw harder. Coaches also love it.
- Cliff Claven |
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dad4kids
109 Posts |
Posted - 07/31/2017 : 17:52:47
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quote:
Originally posted by bama21
Arguably, the best player in the game is Trout and the knock on him, is arm strength.
Coaches are not just looking for speed and speed is by no means "the only separator of talent", their looking for a combination of tools. .
And Trout ran at least a 6.38 60 in HS. One of the reasons he's the best is his speed. He doesn't get to the balls he does without it. Would he be the best without it? Doubtful. Would he be the best without his power and hitting ability? Also doubtful.
Not sure who you're quoting but it wasn't me. Would never says it's the only difference maker. But speed is an important if not critical factor for position players. Unless the kid has big time power, he better have it. |
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bama21
278 Posts |
Posted - 08/01/2017 : 06:58:00
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Speed is last among the 5 tools for most position players, with hitting being most relevant. As far as Trout, never said he didn't have the other 4 tools. The Braves 1st baseman, their best player, ran a 7.80 in the 60 his junior year of HS. He gets paid to hit, not run.
I love how people just throw out random numbers or so called facts: it must be, it probably is, somebody told me. Look it up, if they played fairly recently there are numbers on the player to back up your argument, every thing a player can or can not do is measured.
Also, I believe everyone would agree that the 16u PG World Series that just took place this past week would be a good measure of pitch speeds. There were 30 teams, the best organizations/teams in the country were represented and they came in loaded with ranked and committed players. Of the players in attendance, this is how many that did not hit 85 mph:
Day 1- 29
Day 2- 29
Day 3- 56
Day 4- 49
Day 5- 6
I'm sure these players are dragging the average down, even though most are not from Ga. |
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Crazyforbball
391 Posts |
Posted - 08/01/2017 : 09:16:24
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| From NCAA 2016: of the 488,815 boys that play high school baseball, 7.1%, or 34,554 went on to play NCAA ball in college, and of that. 2.1% made it to D1. In 2016, of those 34,554 playing NCAA baseball, 695 were drafted. 595 came from Div 1, 80 from Div 2, and 20 from Div 3. I think we can all agree we have to realistically understand it's not the mile run speed, or the pitching speed alone, but rather that only THE most gifted all around athletes get there. Keep the dream alive, but encourage your son to use his sport to get the best education he possibly can. In the event that he's not in the 695 D1-D3 college players who eventually get drafted from those 488,815 high school players, it's great to have a back up plan! And chances are those gifted athletes needed the grades in addition to their athletic prowess to get those D1 slots in the 1st place. So if you're going to yell, yell about the C on that chemistry exam, not the dropped ball in the OF. Just sayin'! |
Edited by - Crazyforbball on 08/01/2017 10:12:32 |
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Newbie BB Mom
141 Posts |
Posted - 08/01/2017 : 10:32:17
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quote:
Originally posted by Crazyforbball
From NCAA 2016: of the 488,815 boys that play high school baseball, 7.1%, or 34,554 went on to play NCAA ball in college, and of that. 2.1% made it to D1. In 2016, of those 34,554 playing NCAA baseball, 695 were drafted. 595 came from Div 1, 80 from Div 2, and 20 from Div 3. I think we can all agree we have to realistically understand it's not the mile run speed, or the pitching speed alone, but rather that only THE most gifted all around athletes get there. Keep the dream alive, but encourage your son to use his sport to get the best education he possibly can. In the event that he's not in the 695 D1-D3 college players who eventually get drafted from those 488,815 high school players, it's great to have a back up plan! And chances are those gifted athletes needed the grades in addition to their athletic prowess to get those D1 slots in the 1st place. So if you're going to yell, yell about the C on that chemistry exam, not the dropped ball in the OF. Just sayin'!
I absolutely agree with this. Once your kid hits high school, focus on the grades, let the coaches and instructors take care of the baseball. |
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bama21
278 Posts |
Posted - 08/01/2017 : 10:45:53
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Numbers and Stats, now that's what I'm talking about. I pointed these numbers out to my son just a couple days ago. And being apart of that 2.1%, I still say of the 5 tools, hitting will get you there more so than any other. Of course, having more of the 5 will certainly help.
Depending on what level you are playing, you will get used to seeing kids throwing really hard (upper 80's and low 90's), but that is the top 1% in each class, that is not the norm. And not every kid on that top level team can throw that hard either, but he is doing something else at a high level. |
Edited by - bama21 on 08/01/2017 11:16:11 |
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NF1974
62 Posts |
Posted - 08/01/2017 : 10:48:40
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Great Post Crazy for Baseball! I also wonder of those that get drafted, how many actually go on to " make it to the Show". I dare say there are far more that wind up finishing their playing days in a minor league stadium somewhere. Injuries always play a part...
As far as keeping the dream alive, I think we should always keep our kids dreams alive. It is part of what drives them. I also think that we should be realistic with them about having a back up plan which includes a good education.
As a father, I wondered with my son, if it was my role to give him a realistic picture of his chances of getting paid to play baseball. I opted on helping him keep his dream alive and somewhere along in the process he began to realize that he was not gifted enough. He still loves the game and loves to play-which is the most important thing. |
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Crazyforbball
391 Posts |
Posted - 08/01/2017 : 14:24:38
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| A little research revealed that less than 10% of minor leaguers make it to the show. AND the average minor league salary comes in at around 2,000 a month, so the need to REALLY want it at that point, post college, possibly married with kids, increases exponentially. Plus Mom and Dad better have some deep pockets to keep that dream alive, or the kid needs to be willing to grind it out both on the field and at work...having done that pretty much since they were 7 or 8, I would imagine in many cases that guys often give up, even if not released, after a certain number of years (unless mom and dad do in fact have those deep pockets). At this point in time that good education they hopefully received while playing in college could sure help sway that decision making process. Hence some of the earlier points made..if YOU are the one that wants it, not the boy, you are probably in for a rude awakening down the road. They really do have to be "all in" it appears to go the distance. |
Edited by - Crazyforbball on 08/01/2017 15:18:49 |
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bballman
1432 Posts |
Posted - 08/01/2017 : 16:44:10
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The higher up you go, the smaller the funnel gets. The higher up you go, the closer the talent between the kids is. Any tool you can improve upon will give you that much more of an edge and separate you from the crowd. At some point, it's not just who can throw 95, but who can throw 95 with movement and a plus 2nd pitch. At some point, it's not just who can rake with the bat, but who can rake for average as well as power. And if a player is deficient in one tool, they better be well above average in another to make up for it. Someone mentioned Freddie Freeman running a 7.8 sixty. Well, Freeman is one of the top hitters in the MLB. His hitting is plus plus. There a VERY few out there like him.
The numbers above tell the story. Very few get drafted. With 40 rounds and 32 teams, that means 1280 kids are drafted every year. At 488,815 HS players, that means 0.2% will wind up being drafted out of HS or college. The advice about getting an education is solid. Everyone - including me at one point - has dreams of their kid playing in the MLB one day. Very few will. Keep the dream alive - you never know - but be realistic as well. Hope for the best, plan for the worst. |
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bama21
278 Posts |
Posted - 08/02/2017 : 06:52:35
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| Anything after college is a pipe dream, many dream of it, few will achieve it. There are too many variables, way too many, the stars have to align perfectly. Set your sites on college, that's a huge achievement, as the numbers point out. |
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CaCO3Girl
1989 Posts |
Posted - 08/02/2017 : 08:29:12
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quote:
Originally posted by bama21
Speed is last among the 5 tools for most position players, with hitting being most relevant. As far as Trout, never said he didn't have the other 4 tools. The Braves 1st baseman, their best player, ran a 7.80 in the 60 his junior year of HS. He gets paid to hit, not run.
I love how people just throw out random numbers or so called facts: it must be, it probably is, somebody told me. Look it up, if they played fairly recently there are numbers on the player to back up your argument, every thing a player can or can not do is measured.
Also, I believe everyone would agree that the 16u PG World Series that just took place this past week would be a good measure of pitch speeds. There were 30 teams, the best organizations/teams in the country were represented and they came in loaded with ranked and committed players. Of the players in attendance, this is how many that did not hit 85 mph:
Day 1- 29
Day 2- 29
Day 3- 56
Day 4- 49
Day 5- 6
I'm sure these players are dragging the average down, even though most are not from Ga.
Where did you get these numbers from? |
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bama21
278 Posts |
Posted - 08/02/2017 : 11:23:35
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| PG website under daily leaders. They list all FB speeds daily for every player that pitched. You just have to count all the players below a certain threshold i.e. 85 mph. |
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Around_the_Horn
31 Posts |
Posted - 08/02/2017 : 16:28:00
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quote:
Originally posted by bama21
PG website under daily leaders. They list all FB speeds daily for every player that pitched. You just have to count all the players below a certain threshold i.e. 85 mph.
To validate this further. Of the 926 pitchers down at Jupiter last year. The average top velocity for RHP was 87MPH and for LHP it was 85 MPH. |
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in_the_know
985 Posts |
Posted - 08/02/2017 : 17:54:31
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quote:
Originally posted by NF1974
Great Post Crazy for Baseball! I also wonder of those that get drafted, how many actually go on to " make it to the Show". I dare say there are far more that wind up finishing their playing days in a minor league stadium somewhere. Injuries always play a part...
As far as keeping the dream alive, I think we should always keep our kids dreams alive. It is part of what drives them. I also think that we should be realistic with them about having a back up plan which includes a good education.
As a father, I wondered with my son, if it was my role to give him a realistic picture of his chances of getting paid to play baseball. I opted on helping him keep his dream alive and somewhere along in the process he began to realize that he was not gifted enough. He still loves the game and loves to play-which is the most important thing.
Obviously not reflective of the 2016 draft class, however, your chances of making it to the MLB are about double if you're drafted out of college. Of the 2017 MLB Opening Day Rosters, the breakdown was as follows:
4-year college - 43.8%
International - 26.5%
High School - 23.9%
2-year college - 5.8%
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C86PpsrUQAA4ENj.jpg
And to keep this on topic, clearly all parents of the 43.8% yelled at their kids while playing youth ball. That's the only logical reason for their success.
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CaCO3Girl
1989 Posts |
Posted - 08/03/2017 : 08:18:28
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quote:
Originally posted by bama21
PG website under daily leaders. They list all FB speeds daily for every player that pitched. You just have to count all the players below a certain threshold i.e. 85 mph.
So, you said:
30 teams, 16u, of the players in attendance, this is how many that did not hit 85 mph:
Day 1- 29
Day 2- 29
Day 3- 56
Day 4- 49
Day 5- 6
On day one there were how many pitchers? Some may have only used an opener and a closer, but I doubt it. Due to pitch smart rules at 36 pitches you need two days of rest. At the BCS we changed out kids at 35 pitches. So that's probably 3 or 4 pitchers per game times 30 teams. So let's go on the low end, 30 teams times 3 pitchers is 90 pitchers and less than 30 didn't throw over 85. By days 3 and four their key guys were resting, and day 5 almost everyone threw over 85.
Add that with Around the Horn's assertion of what happened at Jupiter this year and I maintain 16u and up you need to be throwing 85 or better. |
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Renegade44
211 Posts |
Posted - 08/03/2017 : 10:47:46
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Yeah and I saw many of those pitchers. Many of them threw ball 4 really well too. And have yet to learn that down the middle isn't a location for a strike or that 25-30 pitch innings even if sometimes a miracle shutout inning won't fly for long. Plus exactly 1/2 of them came up as the losing pitcher.
Keep hyping the pure velo that will often never succeed at the next level. Its why college games take 4 hours and hyped favorite colleges regularly flame out when it counts.
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STOP YELLING AT YOUR KID!
